NBA Draft 2024: The strength of the draft is in the backcourt

We’ve talked centers, forwards, and wings, which means we’ve saved the best for last. The strength of this 2024 NBA Draft appears to be in the backcourt.

That’s not to say this year’s guards are star-studded, can’t-miss prospects. Even the guys with the best grades in Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA for short), my stat-based prospect evaluation tool, have their flaws and worry points.

At this point, I have 16 players with first round grades. That’s about 7-8 fewer than I’d have in a normal draft year. Here’s the breakdown by position:

Center — 5
Forward — 2
Wings — 2
Guards — 7
At guard, there are another five close to first round grades, and another few with second round scores. Let’s start at the top:

Reed Sheppard, Kentucky — Shooter! Elite efficiency — 55.5% on twos, 52.1% on threes (not a typo), 83.1% from the free throw line. Plus, he rebounded decently for a guard (5.7 per 40 minutes), did some playmaking (6.2 assists per 40), averaged more than two assists for every turnover, averaged a block per 40, and led the draft class in steals by half a steal per 40 minutes. His agility scores were well above average at the combine, and he tied for the best vertical leap. The concern? He’s just 6-2 and he has short arms. It could he’s too small to defend effectively at the NBA level. That’s a legit worry point, even though the statistical markers for athleticism agree with his outstanding combine performance.
Devin Carter, Providence — Good size, long wingspan, agile, incredible leaper. Probably the best athlete in this year’s draft. His production was good — just under 10 rebounds per 40 minutes, 4.1 assists per 40, plus 56.3% on twos, 37.7% from three, and 74.9% on 5.9 free throw attempts per 40. More turnovers than are ideal (1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio). And he’s 22 years old. He’s 13th in Tankathon’s consensus mock draft, and there should be better prospects available at two. If the Wizards trade back, he could be an interesting pick.
Stephon Castle, Connecticut — All-around contributor who provided his team with some rebounds, assists, and defense. Good size and solid agility scores at the combine. His leaping measurements were below average, though not enough to lose him points in YODA. The statistical markers for athleticism were mixed — solid two-point percentage and offensive rebounding vs. relatively low steals and blocks. Bigger worry point: 26.7% on threes, and he took just 3.3 per 40.
Rob Dillingham, Kentucky — Excellent three-point shooter (44.4%) who struggled inside the arc (49.5%), likely due to being so small. Despite the size, he rebounded (5.0 per 40) and generated assists (6.6 per 40). He also produced turnovers and a TON of fouls (4.5 per 40). The fouls are a signal of being overwhelmed on defense, which is worrisome as he tries to move up a level.
Nikola Topic, Red Star (International) — Impressive production in a strong international league. He’d rank higher but for the partially torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee. Good height but a relatively short wingspan. Still, he shot 60.3% on twos and 87.8% from the free throw line. The two-point percentage is an indicator of athleticism, and the high free throw percentage suggests his 30.6% three-point shooting could be an aberration. He also averaged 8.0 assists per 40 and had an ast/tov ratio of 2.4-to-1. There wasn’t much defensive production from Topic, and he fouled a lot.
KJ Simpson, Colorado — Short (just 6-0 tall) with excellent agility and vertical leap. Superb shooting (43.4% from deep and 87.6% on free throws) plus good rebounding and assists. Like Dillingham, Simpson shot below 50% from two-point range and didn’t tally impressive steal or block numbers. Unlike Dillingham, Simpson didn’t foul much. The consensus has him as a second round pick. YODA thinks he’s worth a first.
Jamal Shead, Houston — Another diminutive PG with excellent quickness, though without the otherworldly hops. The assists and steals are impressive, and he even grabbed some rebounds. The poor two-point percentage (45.6%) and shooting from three (30.9%) combined with the size and age (he’s 22) are real concerns. He’s supposed to be a second round pick, but YODA has him with a late first grade.
Here are the guys close to a first round grade, but not quite there:

Tyler Kolek, Marquette — Already 23, and he’s on the small side with short arms. The production was there, though — good shooting from two- and three-point range, good rebounding, loads of assists and relatively few turnovers.
Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor — Good size, unimpressive production. Walter shot just 42.3% on twos, which is a concern. Rebounding, assists, steals and blocks were all Lilliputian, as Clyde Frazier might say.
Jared McCain, Duke — Another smaller guard with short arms. Very poor vertical measurements at the combine. He rebounded decently, shot well from deep (41.4%) and converted on 52.1% of his twos, which is good.
Antonio Reeves, Kentucky — Already 24 years old, Reeves can really shoot — 55.7% on twos, and 44.7% on threes. Not much else to his game (his defensive production was paltry), but I could the Denver Nuggets picking him in the second round for his shooting. And he might be worth it for 2-3 years at the minimum.
Tristen Newton, Connecticut — Another older prospect (23), but Newton’s contributions are rebounds and playmaking, not shooting.
And, I’ll finish with a speed round through some guys with second round grades:

Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest
Juan Nunez, Ratiopharm Ulm (International)
Bub Carrington, Pittsburgh
Isaiah Collier, USC
Pacome Dadiet, Ratiopharm Ulm (International) — Might be a wing in the NBA, which would not move him up in YODA.
Reece Beekman, Virginia
For both readers who are interested, Bronny James has a “don’t draft” grade, which makes sense given his heart issue and derailed freshman year.

One note: I had some questions about Matas Buzelis. I’d typoed in the data entry and categorized him as a guard in the position name column. In the position column that contains numbers, I had him (correctly) designated as a forward. YODA has Buzels with a second round grade. Mock drafts have him in the top 10.

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